It's hard to believe López Obrador can raise his mob of tens of thousands to a fever pitch... and then just walk away without a war.
This affects America hugely: if Mexico degenerates into a civil war, the first thing that will happen is hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions of hysterical Mexicans will pour across our border, where we have no hope of stopping them at the moment... particularly since they will claim "refugee" status -- and not without a good case.
But the next problem is that the Bush administration and Congress will have a very difficult decision to make: do we just stand idly by and watch a Communist dictatorship take over our southern neighbor and ally? Or do we take arms against a sea of troubles, and by opposing, end them -- maybe.
It is worth it to read the entire post. I would like to think that there won't be civil war in Mexico, but all I have to base that on is hopeful optimism. I'm not entirely certain who "controls" the Mexican military, or whether Obrador's supporters in the capital are armed, and to what extent.
But he is right that whatever the outcome, this is important to the US. As porous as our borders are, a flood of war refugees would be an immigration disaster of monumental proportions. I don't really have any solutions, but I hope the governments of the border states, as well as the national government, are keeping that possibility in mind.