Thursday, April 07, 2005

Anybody know any statistics?

According to these guys, recently released data shows that the election was stolen for Bush. Unfortunately, I'm not very good at statistical math, so my ability to look at the results of data and calculation is not very good. The authors, though, analyze a study which apparently shows that the election was stolen, yet the study's authors do not reach that conclusion. The authors of the article, though, say that that is the only plausible explanation.

I am a little skeptical, for a variety of reasons. The first is that the authors somehow reach a very different conclusion than the study's authors. Not that that's a smoking gun, but it does seem a little odd. The next is that this seems to require widespread conspiracy and fraud. Surely, if such were the case, we'd be hearing about it happening. Something would have leaked to the media or law enforcement. They just don't pass up opportunities like that. The third is pretty close to the second. Aside from the data, there is no evidence offered for vote fraud and manipulation. That, to me, is the biggest obstabcle to their conclusion. If there is absolutely no evidence that Republicans stole the election, then why are other theories explaining the data implausible? I think that question is incredibly important to answer.

Of course, this is not to deny the possibility that it was stolen. I would be incredibly disappointed in too many ways to count if that were the case.


Anonymous said...

Hey! That entry was so good, why don't you post it twice? Oh wait, you already did!!

It really WAS good though. I love you.

Dracotype said...

The idea is rather ridiculous for several reasons. One, it would take corruption so widespread that it would be so obvious to anyone looking. Two, did the report say what the corruption was? Three, what some people call "stealing" the election is actually just large numbers of people not voting. In the US, only 50% of registered voters actually vote. In reality, you could say the election was stolen, but by people sitting at home on their behinds and not voting. Just a different perspective. Nice thread.